Five Reasons We Are Not Headed for Another Housing Crash

A Story by Pamela Briggs | Updated 03/18/2020 4:58am


As the country continues to feel the impact of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak and volatility in the stock market, it’s caused many to question if this could lead to another housing crash like in 2008?

The answer is a resounding NO.

Here are five reasons to explain the dramatic differences.

1. Mortgage standards are nothing like they were back then.

During the housing bubble, it was difficult NOT to get a mortgage. Today, it is tough to qualify. Getting a mortgage today is even more difficult than it was before the bubble.

2. Prices are not soaring out of control.

Though price appreciation has been quite strong recently, it is nowhere near the rise in prices that preceded the crash.

There’s a stark difference between these two periods of time. Normal appreciation is 3.6%, so while current appreciation is higher than the historic norm, it’s certainly not accelerating beyond control as it did in the early 2000s.

3. We don’t have a surplus of homes on the market. We have a shortage.

The months’ supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued appreciation. Today, there’s a shortage of inventory which is causing an acceleration in home values.

4. Houses became too expensive to buy.

The affordability formula has three components: the price of the home, the wages earned by the purchaser, and the mortgage rate available at the time. Fourteen years ago, prices were high, wages were low, and mortgage rates were over 6%. Today, prices are still high. Wages, however, have increased and the mortgage rate is about 3.5%. That means the average family pays less of their monthly income toward their mortgage payment than they did back then.

5. People are equity rich, not tapped out.

In the run-up to the housing bubble, homeowners were using their homes as a personal ATM machine. Many immediately withdrew their equity once it built up, and they learned their lesson in the process. Prices have risen nicely over the last few years, leading to over fifty percent of homes in the country having greater than 50% equity. But owners have not been tapping into it like the last time. In fact, homeowners have cashed out $500 Billion less than before the crash last time. 

Bottom Line

If you’re concerned we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, give me a call to discuss at 909-631-0006!

 

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Pamela Briggs
Real Estate Group
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